ALBERTA: THE SWING IS REAL. THE CLOCK IS TICKING. This isn’t my usual kind of post. No jokes. No fire and brimstone. Just straight-up voter intel from deep inside the numbers -because the narrative is shifting, fast. You know those pretty colours on 338Canada? They’re not just polling numbers. They’re built from a stew of public polls, regional trends, past elections, and a dash of modelling from founder Philippe J. Fournier. They assign confidence like this: Safe = 99.9%+, Likely = 90–99%, Leaning = 70–90% Toss-Up = anything under that. Last week? Alberta had eight Liberal-favouring ridings. Today? Four of those are sliding. Hard. Here are the ‘odds of winning stats’ Edmonton West dropped from 63% to 28%, Calgary McKnight? Down. Edmonton Centre? Down. Calgary Centre and Confederation? Now tilting, Conservative. And no, Easter weekend polling gaps don’t explain this away. This is a warning. Not because the game is lost, but because this is the moment it starts slipping if we don’t act. If you’re in Alberta, this is the time to stop assuming, start talking, and get every single progressive voter you know ready. Make sure they understand that the path to holding back the blue wave doesn’t just run through Ontario and BC, it runs through us. Right now. If you’re in another province? Pay attention. What’s happening here could hit you next. Polls don’t vote. People do. But if we sit this one out? We’re going to wake up in a Canada we don’t recognize — and it won’t be a polling model’s fault. It’ll be ours.
Nancy's Notes 