There Will Be Wars… and Rumours of Wars. The latest strikes on Iran are hard to process. The headlines are loud, the facts are murky, and the implications are overwhelming. And when something this consequential happens, all the unresolved threads of Middle East conflict start pulling at you again.
In a recent post, someone commented, and rightly so, that support for the Jewish people does not equate to support for Netanyahu or the current Israeli government. That distinction matters more than ever. I will not let criticism of government policy be misread as religious bias. I am not an anti-Semite. I am deeply critical of Benjamin Netanyahu, his decisions, his alliances, and the direction he’s taken Israel. That’s not anti-Israel, and it’s certainly not anti-Jewish.
I believe in the right of Israel to exist and for its people to live in peace, just as I do for Palestinians, Iranians, and everyone else caught in the crossfire of leaders too comfortable with war.
The line that keeps echoing for me is from Matthew in the New Testament: There will be wars and rumours of wars. The words have been lifted out of context many times, but whether in or out, they are bouncing around inside my head as I write this. Because this doesn’t feel like resolution, it feels like escalation.
I’m over 65, and I have never known a time where the Middle East wasn’t unraveling, exploding, or bracing for the next round. These aren’t just ancient rivalries. They’re modern power struggles, religious, yes, but also territorial, economic, and strategic. The horror in Gaza, the attacks on Israel October 7th, 2023, the suffering of Palestinians, the strikes in Lebanon, and now Iran.
This latest strike appears to be about nuclear capability. Does Iran have nuclear weapons? No. Do they have uranium enrichment? Yes. Is it legal? That depends on the level, oversight, and agreements, the details that only diplomats can fully parse. The rest of us are left piecing together news and opinion, trying to make sense of it.
Let me be clear: the world is better off without Iran having nuclear weapons. That much I believe. But anyone who tells you they know what happens next is lying, or delusional. Because no one knows. And that’s what makes it so dangerous. One thing seems likely: this will set Iran back, but not for long. Without real diplomacy, enrichment will resume. So who has the ear of the Ayatollah? Anyone? If not, what’s the actual long-term plan?
Kareem Sadjadpour, senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and one of the most respected analysts on Iran, said something tonight that hit hard:
“What happened tonight could either entrench the regime or hasten its demise. More likely to open a new chapter than to end it.” To me, that’s not hopeful. It’s foreboding. Sadjadpour is known for balance, not alarmism. If he’s bracing for something worse, then so am I.
The United States did not have a direct threat to their land. Even if this strike was “necessary,” even if it checks the box of “right thing to do,” I’m not sure it was the right country to do it. And if it was, I’m deeply troubled by who made the decision.
Donald Trump launched this strike without Congressional approval. No vote. No oversight. Just one man who ordered unilateral military action in one of the most volatile regions on earth. That’s not statesmanship. That’s a man with a god complex playing God with global consequences. That’s not democratic power. That’s something much darker.
According to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), there is currently no verified evidence that Iran possesses a nuclear weapon. However, uranium enrichment levels have reached just under 60%, a serious concern, but still well below the 90% threshold for weapons-grade material. It’s worth remembering that under the 2015 JCPOA, brokered in part by President Obama, enrichment was effectively capped and strictly monitored, and the IAEA reported full compliance up until Trump unilaterally withdrew from the deal in 2018. Since then, Iran has steadily escalated its nuclear activity. So the question becomes: what triggered what? Was it Iranian aggression that unraveled diplomacy , or the collapse of diplomacy that accelerated Iran’s nuclear ambition? Either way, the agreement is gone, enrichment is up, and we’re now living with the fallout.
And now the questions come. Will this embolden Trump? Will Netanyahu strike again? Will Iran retaliate? Will this spin into something even worse?
Because right now, it feels like a dangerous new drama is unfolding, starring two very dangerous men: one in a long robe, the other in a long red tie.
And if that doesn’t terrify you, it should.
Nancy's Notes 