24 Hours to Mark Carney’s First full Cabinet: and this is my crystal ball moment (read it with that in mine and provide your own speculation.) There are rumours that this will be a smaller group of main cabinet positions with a second tier. I am uncertain how that would differ from Parliamentary secretaries. And while I have zero inside knowledge, no burner phone to the PMO, and absolutely no desire to pretend I’m a national pundit, I do have… opinions. Why? Because I’m a policy geek. I love this stuff. I read bios like novels, track riding results like some people follow playoff brackets, and try to read the temperature of a government through the personalities it chooses, not because I think I’m gifted at it, but because it matters.
And because I live in Alberta, where cabinet speculation gets buried under all the usual shouting about federalism and “not getting our fair share,” I’d like to offer a non-shouty perspective: We don’t need to overcompensate for Alberta. But we do need to include it. Thoughtfully. Strategically. Realistically. Because even though we only sent three Liberals from the Prairies, those three come with real-life experience. Let’s not waste it, or weaponize it.
So, Mark Carney has a challenge. He’s got: A 170-seat caucus, a world in geopolitical freefall, an economy demanding both ambition and restraint, a circus south of the border and a party he needs to recast without erasing. This cabinet is Carney’s first test. Not just of political skill, but of governance style.
So here’s the top portfolios with my fun but foggy crystal ball.
Finance – Anita Anand. A steady hand. A serious mind. The antidote to political theater. And if she becomes Deputy PM too? Even better.
Defense – Jean-Yves Duclos. Smart, unflappable, respected. We need NORAD upgrades and CAF reform, not swagger.
Foreign Affairs – Mélanie Joly. If Joly stays, it’s continuity with class. If not, François-Philippe Champagne maybe, charming world leaders and diplomats like it’s a speed-dating summit.
Infrastructure – Sean Fraser. He’s policy-brain meets Atlantic grit. The kind of person who could actually explain a trade corridor and make it happen.
Health – Stephanie McLean. A former member of the Alberta legislature, she was minister for the status of women and Service Alberta in the Notley NDP government.Empathy meets pragmatism. And if the provinces start budget-jousting? She won’t blink.
So how do we bring in the Prairie People: We Have a Few. Let’s Use Them Wisely. Alberta and Saskatchewan didn’t exactly pack the Liberal bench this time. But Carney has two Alberta names to work with:
Cory Hogan (Calgary Confederation) He’s a policy brain. Knows the Alberta terrain. Could be used brilliantly in Intergovernmental Affairs or Natural Resources. Wouldn’t that be something?
Eleanor Olszewski (Edmonton Centre) – Lawyer, community advocate. A possible voice on Justice or Seniors, even as a Parliamentary Secretary.
Let’s be clear: both will not be full ministers. But one or two must be elevated. This is about governability, not appeasement. And Alberta doesn’t need more excuses to throw tantrums, we need roles with teeth.
So back to the overall team. What about Crystia Freeland? Exit, Pivot, or Reinvention? She’s a force. Brilliant. Battle-tested. But undeniably linked to the Trudeau years. So what now? Exit on a high note and go global? Pivot to a quieter but still weighty portfolio, Democratic Institutions? Stay in cabinet, but off-centre? Carney can’t afford her shadow. But he also can’t ignore her strength. If she stays, it’ll be on his terms. And then there is Champagne, Still Chilled? Don’t count out François-Philippe Champagne. If Carney wants: Industry, Global Trade or a senior behind-the-scenes strategist maybe…He’s still got the charm and chops to deliver.
Rising Stars to Watch (Even If They’re Not Ministers… Yet) There are many but here are some thoughts. Taleeb Noormohamed (BC), Innovation, digital, AI. One of the smartest people in the room. Rachel Bendayan (QC), Finance-adjacent or international. Fluent, quick, strategic. Lena Metlege Diab (NS), Immigration or Justice. Atlantic strength. Pascal St-Onge (QC), Culture, labour, equity. Authentic and overdue for a bigger spotlight.
As a final thought tone will be everything. You can tell a lot about a Prime Minister by the first cabinet they build. It’s not just about region or résumé. It’s about how they want to lead, is it collaboratively (remember always collabor’action’) or top-down, cautiously or boldly, performatively or with purpose.
Mark Carney doesn’t owe anyone flash. But he does owe the country a tone reset. So yes, this is fun. It’s speculative. It’s a little nerdy. But it’s also a rare chance to see the soul of a new government take shape. And if I’m wrong about any of this? Or most of this? That’s the beauty of crystal balls. They say more about the person holding them than the future they try to see. But hey, at least mine isn’t fogged up by partisanship-well maybe a little.
Nancy's Notes 