What did I actually just witness? Normally, I wouldn’t be doing a post at this time of day. But because I’ve spoken recently about the importance of this U.S.–EU deal and what it could signal to Canadians, I felt it was important to put something out there right away. Just a reminder that this is where I stand right now. My opinion might change if more information becomes available. (Imagine that, a person adjusting their view based on facts! Wild, I know.)
So here we go. We just watched Donald Trump and Ursula von der Leyen announce what was alternately called a deal, a framework, a partnership, and, let’s be honest a show. It happened at Trump’s golf course in Scotland, following what we’re told was a meeting that lasted less than one hour.
Let me repeat that: less than one hour.
So, I ask you: What real trade deal between the world’s two largest economies, involving $750 billion in energy, $600 billion in U.S. investments, “hundreds of billions” in military purchases, and no documentation, gets hammered out in under 60 minutes?
It doesn’t. This was performative. And it worked, for Trump. He got to sit there and declare “the biggest deal ever made,” while von der Leyen smiled politely, said all the right diplomatic things, and let the man-child bask in his imaginary glory.
But here’s the problem: we still don’t know what this actually is.
There was no written agreement. No release of the framework text. No clarity on timelines for these alleged investments. No mention of climate policy, which is foundational for the EU in every negotiation. Steel? Still untouched. Pharmaceuticals? Excluded. CHIPS? Deferred to Trump’s favourite timeline: “two weeks.”
The numbers thrown around were large. $750B, $600B, “hundreds of billions” seem completely unverified. And without a timeframe, they mean nothing. I could say I’m buying a cottage in the Muskokas. Sounds great. Doesn’t make it true. Not unless I’ve got a few hundred years and a magic money tree.
So, what does this mean for Canada?
Well, we don’t know yet. But we should be paying attention.
This vague spectacle doesn’t necessarily threaten us, but it does signal how Trump is approaching trade: with optics first, substance later (if ever). We’ve got our own looming deadline on tariffs, and despite new relationships being built we still have our own deeply integrated economic ties with the U.S. but also expanded economic ties with the EU. How this deal unfolds could very well shape the tone of upcoming negotiations with Canada.
That’s why I’m not panicking but I am watching. Because Ursula von der Leyen has been in real, ongoing talks with Prime Minister Mark Carney. On climate, regulation and on trade standards. My instincts say they’ve spoken recently, maybe even this morning. And while I do think concessions were made between the EU and the U.S., I do not believe this agreement is as it was presented.
Ursula played this smart. Savvy, even. She gave Trump the optics he needed without surrendering the EU’s deeper priorities or at least not visibly. But a reminder: until there’s a document with dates, mechanisms, and enforcement, there is no deal. There is, at best, a placeholder. At worst, a photo op.
And we need to remember, too, that Canada has its own long-standing relationship with the EU, built on predictability, regulation, and climate accountability and a new enhanced relationship built on relationship where our Prime MInister is considered to be a key allie. I don’t believe that relationship disappeared just because Trump needed a stage today. If anything, I’m more convinced that the real diplomacy is still happening, off-camera.
So here I am, asking questions, reflecting out loud, and inviting feedback. I’m not claiming to have the answers, just raising the red flags I see flapping wildly in the Scottish wind.
And for anyone wondering how it all landed, I’ll just leave you with this image: the EU and U.S. flags, side by side, planted squarely in a sand trap. Fitting, really. They walked out claiming the biggest deal ever made, and left it resting in the sand, soft beneath the surface. Not exactly solid ground. Some might even call it quicksand.
Nancy's Notes 