Nancy's Notes

January is a difficult month for me. Today would be my father’s 103rd birthday. It is also four years since my brother passed away. Over time, January has become a convergence point of personal loss and memory. Dates that carry weight whether we want them to or not. I have never taken my Christmas tree down before January 6th. Not out of doctrine, but out of respect for carrying light to its proper end. Ritual matters when the world feels unsteady. Turning the lights off too early has always felt like conceding something unnecessary.

Like many people, today marks a return to regular work, routines. and responsibility. The holiday pause ends, and whatever unfolded while much of the world was distracted now has to be faced in real time.

I have never been someone who sees the world through rosecoloured glasses. But I have also never believed that the worst outcome is inevitable. Lately, that balance feels harder to hold, not because I have changed, but because the world has. We no longer move from crisis to recovery. We move from crisis to crisis. And much of that instability now radiates outward from the United States.

That sense of unease is sharpened by the calendar itself. Tomorrow, January 6th, marks five years since the attack on the U.S. Capitol. An insurrection I will continue to call exactly that. It is no longer just a historical marker. It is a reminder of how quickly norms can fracture, and how much damage can be done when power is pursued without restraint.

Congress sits today which means briefings, internal positioning, and the gradual emergence of information that does not always align with the first wave of public messaging following the recess. The important conversations around the economy, health care and Epstein are being sidelined.

In 2012, Donald Trump suggested that Barack Obama might use military action to boost approval ratings if his poll numbers slipped. No such action occurred. But the comment revealed something important about how Trump understands power. He sees public attention, timing, and polling as levers. Pressure in one area can be relieved by escalating activity in another.

Which makes the timing of this moment worth paying attention to. We are just exiting the holiday period, when credible polling simply is not conducted. Neither quantitative nor qualitative data reflecting public reaction to the events of the past several weeks will be available for days, possibly longer. That creates a familiar window. Without data, narrative moves first. Public attention shifts and other controversies cool. By the time polling resumes, people are no longer reacting to events themselves but to the stories that have already formed around them.

I am not claiming certainty about motive. But it is reasonable to note that this window exists, and that Donald Trump has long demonstrated an instinct for using timing to his advantage. When polling does resume, it will not capture raw reaction. It will measure sentiment after attention has already been redirected.

David Frum recently argued that this imbalance consistently advantages Trump. His supporters act immediately, facts optional. His opponents, who tend to care deeply about facts, institutions, and fairness, hesitate. They wait for confirmation, for perfect evidence, for the right words. Frum’s warning is that this hesitation becomes paralysis. Trump thrives in that space.

Many people assume Members of Congress, particularly Republicans, will not act. Fear of Donald Trump has proven powerful. But fear is not static. There may come a point where fear of constituents outweighs fear of one man. At some point, serving the country has to matter more than serving a single political figure.

I have been grounding myself in voices that understand oil economics rather than political theatre. Analysis from oil and gas experts like Matt Randolph writing in Forbes makes one point clear. Venezuelan oil is heavy oil. The closest real comparator is Canada. Canada’s oil sands did not become viable quickly or cheaply. They required decades of political stability and enormous capital investment. That raises a basic question about whether oil companies have made commitments to this investment and are being discussed seriously or rhetorically.

People with direct responsibility for war and peace are speaking plainly. Former NATO Supreme Allied Commander Admiral James Stavridis warned this week that language about running Venezuela should alarm anyone who has lived through the forever wars. Military power is zero sum.

To Americans reading this, this is your moment. Please do not assume someone else is calling your congressperson. Democracies do not self correct on autopilot.

To my fellow Canadians, I am watching Prime Minister Mark Carney. I understand the frustration of those who feel he has not said enough yet. That concern is fair. But diplomacy is not endorsement. It is risk management. Unity matters right now.

Canada is a vast country, but our greatest vulnerability is geographic. Nearly ninety percent of our population lives within one hundred and sixty kilometres of the U.S. border. That’s not a long way to travel for American troops. This is not fearmongering. It is a map that you can clearly see.

I do not have conclusions. What I have is a clear sense that timing, geography, history, and civic responsibility all matter. This is one of those moments we cannot afford to simply mark and move past.