I was already working on a post about China this morning. That was the plan. Then, as I was writing, Donald Trump did what Donald Trump does. He once again referred to Mark Carney as “governor,” reviving the 51st-state nonsense, and followed it with a threat of 100 percent tariffs if Canada continues to trade with China. So the ground shifted, and the post shifted with it.
Not because this is new. Not because Canada suddenly discovered China exists. But because there is a persistent bit of foolishness in this country, the idea that Canada has somehow never traded with China before, that any engagement now is reckless, ideological, or a betrayal of who we are. It isn’t.
This is the same Donald Trump who endlessly brags about his “great relationship” with Xi Jinping. The same Donald Trump who boasts about his negotiating prowess and his China deals. The same Donald Trump who presided over one of the largest trading relationships in the world between the United States and China, tariffs and theatrics notwithstanding.
When the United States trades with China, it’s framed as strategy.
When Canada does it, suddenly it’s betrayal. This is not principle. It’s intimidation.
Before we spiral into talk about communism and selling out, it’s worth grounding ourselves in some basic facts.
Canada’s trade relationship with China is not new. By 2017 and 2018, China was Canada’s second-largest trading partner. Canadian exports of goods to China were in the range of twenty-five billion dollars a year. Agriculture and agri-food alone accounted for roughly seven to nine billion dollars annually, driven largely by canola, pork, beef, peas, barley, and seafood.
That relationship did not collapse because Canadian farmers or producers suddenly became reckless. It collapsed after political events, including the 2018 arrest of Huawei executive Meng Wanzhou in Vancouver at the request of the United States, and the retaliation that followed. Canadian producers paid the price for a dispute they did not start.
So when people on the Prairies pay attention to renewed conversations about canola or beef access, it isn’t because they’ve embraced some ideology. It’s because they remember what it cost when those markets disappeared.
There is also a lot of loose talk right now about communism, as if trade itself is an ideological conversion. It isn’t. Canada has managed complicated trading relationships for decades without becoming something it is not. Re-engaging with China under defined terms is not a sudden shift in values. It is a response to reality, particularly at a moment when relying on a single market has become increasingly risky.
And this is where we need to remind ourselves of the “one customer” problem for everyone in Canada. Relying on one customer is like living in a town with only one grocery store. As long as the shelves are full and prices are reasonable, it feels fine. You tell yourself it works. But the day prices jump, or certain items disappear, or the store changes the rules, you don’t suddenly gain options. You just feel the squeeze because there was never a backup.
We’ve known this for a long time. We just preferred not to test it.
I’m very connected to the oil and gas sector, so these conversations aren’t theoretical for me. Just the other day, I spoke with someone who would fit comfortably into what I’d call the Maple-MAGA camp. He was eager to tell me two things. First, that he had proudly signed a separation petition. Second, how angry he was that Canada was “courting a communist country” by talking to China. What he did not seem to register, even as he said it, was that the oil and gas company he works for is one hundred percent Chinese-owned and has been operating in Alberta for quite some time. But the point isn’t the individual. The point is how easy it is to live inside a political story that feels emotionally satisfying while being completely disconnected from the economic reality we already participate in every day.
And this isn’t an isolated case. Chinese investment in Canada’s oil and gas sector, particularly in Alberta, has been significant for well over a decade. At its peak in the early 2010s, Chinese state-owned companies invested tens of billions of dollars in Canadian energy assets. While new investment has slowed, Chinese-owned and Chinese-backed companies continue to operate in Alberta today, approved by successive federal governments, including Conservative ones.
None of this is secret and none of it is new. Mark Carney did not ruin Canada’s relationship with the United States. Donald Trump did not wake up angry today because of canola or beef. He is angry because Canada acted like a country with choices. He lashes out when he doesn’t get his way. He uses tariffs as a weapon, not a policy tool.
My intention this morning was to go deeper into the numbers and the longer arc of Canada’s relationship with China. I was already working on that. But the option to take my time disappeared the moment Donald Trump decided to threaten Canada for doing what the United States itself continues to do.
So this isn’t the post I planned. It’s the one the moment demanded.
I’ll say this plainly. China would not be my first choice as a trading partner if the world were tidy and predictable. But I live in the real one. And in the real one, Canadians still need food on the table, paycheques protected, and an economy that isn’t held hostage to one man’s temper.
Donald Trump’s statement this morning is just the next distraction. He doesn’t want to talk about ICE today. He doesn’t want to talk about pressure at home or slipping public support. So he creates noise and distraction as he always does.
And that’s why anyone who thinks Canada can “lock in” a deal with him right now is fooling themselves. There are no deals. There are only temporary pauses until he decides otherwise, usually late at night, with a phone in his hand and an audience on the other side of the screen.
So yes, Canada has to pivot. And frankly, so do the rest of us. Because protecting this country right now means telling the truth even when it’s messy. It means acknowledging risk instead of pretending loyalty will save us. I am not being alarmist. I am being realistic.
And that’s what truth to power looks like now.
Nancy's Notes 